When Bitcoin Mining Stops
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Bitcoin’s Blockchain Relies on Mining to Function

mining bitcoinMining rigs power the blockchain ledger, verify transactions and keep track of coins and wallets.

Once a Bitcoin investor knows the basics of how bitcoin operates it doesn’t take long until one question will inevitably enter their mind…

What Happens When the Bitcoin Mining Stops?

In short, there are two underlying features of Bitcoin which would seem to indicate trouble ahead:

  1. Bitcoin is Finite.
    Bitcoin was designed from the outset as being a finite asset. It’s anonymous creator set a seemingly arbitrary figure of 21 million as the maximum amount of Bitcoins capable of ever being mined.

    Unless the whole system is reprogrammed, which would effectively devalue all the Bitcoins that had gone before, when we reach 21 million, that’s it – game over – no more freshly minted Bitcoin.

  2. Bitcoin Mining Verifies Transactions
    The complex mathematical problems mining rigs solve to earn fresh Bitcoin are the glue that holds together the blockchain. Each and every transaction is verified and permanently stored on the blockchain as a result of this mining activity.

 
If mining no longer generates new Bitcoins as a reward why would miners continue the resource hungry work of verifying transactions?

bitcoin systemThe bitcoin system is designed to operate entirely as a function of the Bitcoin system operating – a kind of self-perpetuating feedback loop.

It stands to reason that if Bitcoin mining stops then you’d expect there to be a catastrophic effect on the rest of the system.

After all mining is central to blockchain function much as our heart is central to being alive.

So here’s the rub: We’re looking at a built-in fixed limit of 21 million Bitcoin. At the time of writing we’ve already seen 18.2 million mined – leaving only 2.8 million to go – so what’s next?
 

When the Mining Stops: The Mildly Uncomfortable Answer

When the last Bitcoin is minted, Bitcoin miners are going to need to rely on bitcoin transaction fees.

Bearing in mind that by the time this happens the mathematical problems mining rigs will need to solve in order to keep the blockchain ledger running will be exponentially harder than they are now. Computing power is constantly increasing to match, but one unavoidable issue when it comes to computing power is the word power.

bitcoin need powerThat power is supplied by electricity – and the greater the need for complex calculations, the more power a computer is going to suck out of the electrical grid. Electricity costs money, as do the mining rigs miners use to maintain the blockchain – and miners are not a charity.

Will relying solely on transactional fees be enough to keep mining profitable? And wasn’t the whole purpose of Bitcoin to provide a low-fee frictionless medium of exchange?

To answer this we need to add multiple assumptions together and hope that it all works out – else we’re going to see miners quit in their droves, a possible centralization of Bitcoin and even see the collapse of the entire Bitcoin network.
 

We Need Electricity to Become Cheaper

In our near future we’re going to need to harness a cheap, renewable and permanently sustainable source of electricity.

Whether that will involve solar, wave, geothermal or wind – or we’ll be plugging our DeLorean into a personal fusion reactor is anyone’s guess, but it’s going to need to be cheap.

If you can picture our energy companies sharing all this expensive development of new energy sources with us at low cost, then we could see Bitcoin miners continue to flourish without seeing unreasonable fees charged.

We Need Computing to Become More Efficient

bitcoin mining rigPowerful computers by definition use a lot of power – but what if we could make powerful computers less energy dependent?

Unless we use a different method to run calculations through a chip, redesign chips to operate in a different fashion, or come up with a wholly new type of computer – we are stuck with physics: power out will never exceed power in.

Advances in quantum computing and organic-based computers suggest we’re not far away from the next generation of computational power, but whether this comes before or after the final Bitcoin is mined is something only time will tell.

We Need Near Global Uptake of Bitcoin

The other possibility is Bitcoin becomes the new global currency – or at least enough people start using it to make micro-payment fees profitable.

In theory if everyone uses bitcoin then thanks to scale, fees on their own could result in big profits – even if these transaction fees were tiny.

The reality however is that if Bitcoin does see an exponential increase in usage then the blockchain would also grow exponentially and with that required computing power, electricity use… and so on.

Back to where we started.

 
The Bitcoin community isn’t concerned – they’ve worked out that if we see slightly lower electricity prices, slightly more efficient computers and a moderate increase in fees – then everything should all work out fine.

Operative word being should.

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